Thaas outrageous, big Mammy refers. We had it as our journal club today, and the outcome was, no-one thought Hansen had done a convincing job.
The paper itself is confusing (“like being inside Hansens head”, as someone put it) and its not clear what its really supposed to be about. My pdf attempts to understand it. The only slide that won’t make sense is the last one; the 3-models-pic is number of AR4 models in the sresa1b scenario with sfc temperature in January above -5 oC. The conclusion of that (and other opinions in the room) is that substantial sfc albedo change is unlikely.
[Update: the original paper is here – thanks C -W]
[Update: there is some weirdness here about someone daring to reject Hansen for being 30 years out of date. But Phil Trans are not so bold -W]
Cruise ship sinking off Argentina says the BBC. And “Passengers and crew have been rescued off Argentina from a cruise liner, which began sinking after it hit ice. The M/S Explorer ran into trouble near King George Island in the Antarctic Ocean, near the South Shetland Islands. Andy Cattrell, of the UK’s Falmouth Coastguard, told the BBC about 100 passengers and 54 crew members have been evacuated and are in lifeboats.”
I hope “rescued” isn’t too optimistic… they are still a long way from civilisation in small lifeboats.
[Update: everyone is now xferred to another ship, it seems. And the ship is variously reported as “going to sink”, “listing 25 degrees” and “tilting 8 degrees” (a tilt is so much better than a list). But a pic from hampshire.net looks more like a list that a tilt :-). Meanwhile the hole in the hull varies from “fist sized” up to “10cm by 25cm”]
A letter from the naughty coal people, and Hansens uncompromising reply, is at http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/NMAletters_20071121.pdf. I’ve been a bit critical of Hansen for over-egging the science sometimes, but exchanges like this are good to remind you of where you stand.
[Update: A partial apology here but suitably mixed into another attack on the coal CEO -W]
So, the question was, how much effect does removing the Arctic sea ice make to the rest of the world? In particular, what is the direct effect, ignoring all the feedbacks that would occur on SST and so on? Happily, an atmosphere-only GCM can answer this question, and happily I had one to hand, viz HadAM3.
Continue reading “Sea ice again”
They’re cr*p, aren’t they? Tracy Says was the name of a band at the UK Met Office. They got their name from the quote :-). Reading the appalling stories that “Two computer discs holding the personal details of all families in the UK with a child under 16 have gone missing” I am irrestistibly reminded of them. The Register has a bit more; thanks to Inel for the tip.
Continue reading “Tracy says…”
I have got complained at for responding to “The impact on the stability of the Greenland ice sheet as well as on global weather patterns would likely be nearly unimaginable” with “…as for the impact on the weather, there is no reason to suppose any problem.” This in the context of the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. So maybe its worth discussing a bit.
Continue reading “The impact on the stability of the Greenland ice sheet as well as on global weather patterns would likely be nearly unimaginable?”
Reading the torygraph business section I came across Deutsche Bank in ownership court row: “An American judge has prevented Deutsche Bank from repossessing 14 homes because the bank could not prove it owned the defaulting mortgages involved… Pooling involves taking hundreds if not thousands of mortgages, putting them in one unit, and then selling parts of that unit to others. As a result, it can often be unclear which bank actually owns the individual mortgages. Judge Boyko had ordered lawyers acting for Deutsche Bank National Trust Company to prove the lender was the ultimate owner of the mortgages. When it could not do so, he dismissed the cases.”
Oops, someone has been careless.
[Update: thanks to C for Tanta -W]