Since RC has posted on the sea ice, maybe its a good time for an update.
From http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ we have
So its clearly going to be a close run thing. At the moment the trend line favours the good guys (that is to say, me, if you’re in doubt 🙂 but not by much.
mt called me a “polyanna” (presumably by analogy to “polynyas”) for betting on the high side. So let me clarify: my “prediction” was based purely on my reading of the statistics of the time series to-date: a record is rarely followed by another. If we have entered a new regime, then my reasonning is invalid. At the moment, I don’t know. The extent is barely above last years, but the ice is thinner, as as NB points out you can see the cracks. Bets are still (formally) open, especially to anyone so confident of low ice that they are prepared to offer 2-1 odds :-), or even odds on extent substnatially lower than last year.
RC points to the “rather casual” article in the Indescribably over-hyped, which has tense problems. For extra fun, the Indie also says If it happens, it raises the prospect of the Arctic nations being able to exploit the valuable oil and mineral deposits below these a bed which have until now been impossible to extract because of the thick sea ice above. Notice it doesn’t say “but the good news is…” presumably because for some reason this isn’t good news 🙂 [It really does say “these a bed”, which I presume is “below the sea bed” with the wrong spacing: thats what happens when you rely on spellcheckers to proof read your articles].
Oh, while I’m here, my cunning cryptic wiki edit comment was “BtW T2” here. There is no prize for decoding it but I’ll be impressed.