Global cooling and spooks, again

With great excitement, WUWT has discovered some old news: The CIA documents the global cooling research of the 1970’s. But, being WUWT, it gets it wrong. Because the CIA didn’t document the research of the time. The document they are citing isn’t competent.

Nor is any of this new; see A study of climatological research as it pertains to intelligence problems for the details. I’ll repeat my conclusion from there:

Conclusion: this report says more about the CIA, and the dangers of a report being hijacked by a small group of people when not put out for proper review, than it does about the state of climatology at the time.

I’d tell this this myself, but they can’t cope with too much reality.

Refs

* The ’70s Cooling Meme vs. Knowledge – DA ref’ing me.

Strange days indeed

Congratulations to SpaceX, who have connected their Dragon to the ISS.

dragon-msnbc

[That’s a screen-grab, BTW, not a clickable video. Go to msnbc for video.]

That isn’t what I find so strange, though it is potentially the start of a big exciting Newe Worlde.

What was so strange, so bizarre, was the mixture of the real-time video from the ISS with the Dragon capsule on the end of the robot arm with the world turning underneath it oh so beautiful and delicate, and all flung carelessly out onto the web for anyone who wanted to watch; with the stupid irritating Pringles advert I was forced to sit though for ten seconds before watching the video.

Refs

* The Lesson of SpaceX’s Dragon by David Appell

Things I'm glad other people have said

So I don’t have to bother saying them myself.

* SpaceX Dragon on its way to the ISS! (and watch more of it – though I’d skip the first ~40 mins of talk if I were you). Note: I’m a bit behind the times here; see the next post.
* The Magistrate’s blog – more down to earth: pointing out the stupidity of the press complaining about “unelected European judges” when we don’t elect our own either.
* More about the facebook IPO from Timmy.
* Peter Gleick cleared of forging documents in Heartland expose – actually this one doesn’t fit my title. Its interesting, but so vague on detail as to be not much use. I would not have written it. [Update: DA actually asked them and they said they aren’t finished.]

Costs of adaption

Someone’s PR folk mailed me CARE and climate change Into Unknown Territory: The limits to adaptation and reality of loss and damage from climate impacts, and the report itself. You know what its like: the first big pic is a poor person with a baby in a dry landscape with a dead cow skeleton; the next is a poor person up to her neck in water (although… there are some green shoots in the dry landscape, and green on the horizon. Never mind; you see what they are aiming at).

But I didn’t get far before the language became odd: The World Bank estimates that even in a 2°C world, adaptation costs for developing countries will amount to a minimum of US$70 billion by 2020 and to up to 100 billion a year by 2050. What does that mean? What is a “2 oC world”? One in which GW has reached +2 oC by 2050? One in which the trajectory is to +2 by 2100, say, and we’ve got half way there by 2050? +2 above pre-industrial, or present? I don’t know. And I couldn’t be bothered to read in enough detail to find out if they ever resolve this mystery. There is far too much dodgy language in there to make it worth shredding; where they get +6 oC (on page 6) from I don’t know. Or why (same page) they think China is going to overtake the US in per capita emissions by 2017.

However, their ref for the world bank is The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study which was a bit interesting, and contained this figure:

adaption-costs

Look closely: the costs are mostly ~0.1% of GDP (except sub-Saharan Africa, which is very poor). More importantly: notice that the cost of adaption, as a percentage of GDP, goes down over time, not up. This is because the countries are growing, economically, faster than damages [*] are increasing in absolute terms.

Well, I’m sure you see the point.

[*] RJ, in the comments, eventually makes me understand that I’ve mis-spoked here. I mean “costs”, as in costs of adaption, not damages. And as we end up agreeing in the comments, the costs of adaption should be less than the damages (else why bother).

O brave new world

So, we’ve transitioned to the new platform. Jolly good.

However, the last couple of posts (Facebook, and von S) didn’t make it across; I’ve fixed that up, from backup and cache.

I believe that, in theory, comments have come across (except on those two posts). If you think you can see some of yours that haven’t, please use this post to note that. Indeed, if you have any comments on the new format, do let me know.

A couple of changes. It looks like the new comment system might be more sane. From my point of view nice changes are:

* I can now close comments on old posts, and have (argh, that hasn’t taken effect. I can guess why).
* I’ve set the auto-approve setting to “those who have already had a comment approved”.
* The server seems to be faster – updating posts and comments is quicker.

Irritatingly, at the moment wp isn’t emailing me when comments show up needing moderation. I need to fix that. I think it was just slow to wind up. Now its working.

Other stuff: I turned off the Gravatars. I could turn them back on, if anyone cares. Vote in the comments.

There doesn’t seem to be a convenient way for you to permalink to your comments. They do have permalinks, its just hard for you to know what they are.

von S jumps the shark

Many thanks to commentor Bam who alerted me to A comment by Alex Harvey: CLIMATE CHANGE ARBITRATION BIAS AT WIKIPEDIA by Hans von Storch CLIMATE CHANGE ARBITRATION BIAS AT WIKIPEDIA complete with big shouty letters.

[This is a copy from back-up of a post that was on the old mt site, and didn’t get auto-moved to the new wp site. It will have lost any comments made then, sorry.]

Before you read that, you probably need to at least see Junk from von S (especially if you’re a von S reader, because he has previously censored links to that post). If you read the comments there, its clear that von S is clueless about wikipedia. And what do you do if you’re clueless? That’s right: you publish twaddle from a septic who is pretending to be neutral, which is von S’s most recent post. In the comments, von S uses the “Curry defence”: that he hasn’t got a clue what is going on, but is publishing this out of interest. Or something like that.

Probably the most important point to make is that anyone trying to understand what is going on from what AH is saying to von S will not succeed. Just about everything written by AH is either lies or deliberate misrepresentation. Please don’t expect me to correct it all. My own view of the original case is here, if you’re interested. You might also want to read my rather disorganised on-wiki page.

von S’s post relies heavily on Lawrence Solomon. As any fule kno, Solomon didn’t and doesn’t understand how wiki works, so pretty well everything he posted, and AH regurgitated, was wrong. I say “so”, but that is being generous: Solomon is not accidentally getting things wrong, or perhaps better has taken no trouble to get things right. By contrast AH does know how wiki works (well, a bit); he is deliberately lying to von S. See for example a child’s garden of wikipedia.

On the substantive point, which is the odd suggestion that arbcomm is biased pro-science, it is interesting to read the actual ban appeals. AH doesn’t provide you with convenient links to those, preferring to provide his own inaccurate gloss. Mine is here. The basic point is, I know what I’m talking about wrt GW and have something to contribute, and have a very long history of contributing worthwhile content. Cla68’s is here. The basic point is that he doesn’t know what he is talking about and has nothing to contribute except disruption (that’s my gloss, BTW). Don’t miss the “statement by MastCell” on that page. Its not a one-off; that is typical Cla. Taken together, this suffices to explain the difference in our treatment.

Update: its nice to see that not everyone is convinced by von S, see e.g. this comment which makes an explicit connection with one of von S’s hopes, the “honest broker” stuff: In my opinion giving Alex Harvey a platform for charactar assassination was a bad idea, far away from any honest broker ideals.

Refs

* Curry jumps the shark
* Jumping the shark?
* Webcite of Storch’s post as of writing
* Morano madness
* The IPCC May Have Outlived its Usefulness?
* MONCKTON AND THE MOB