Himalayan glaciers to disappear by… when?

Reader enragedparrot asks the rather sensible question, which appears to have been somewhat neglected in the vast war of words of 2035, 2350, and quite what is the source for what: if 2035 is badly wrong, what is the right date?

The answer, of course, is that I don’t know. But I may be able to tell you something useful along the way. If you’ve seen a better answer, please point me at it.

[Dragged from the comments: http://web.hwr.arizona.edu/~gleonard/2009Dec-FallAGU-Soot-PressConference-Backgrounder-Kargel.pdf is excellent -W]
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