8 thoughts on “Osmosis”

  1. Dear William,

    I one comment to Tamino’s blog you wrote that one should not attribute this year’s (whole) decrease in the arctic floating ice, because climate models do not predict so. I fully agree. But let me give an example.

    We have an exceptionaly dry year in e.g. Siberia, partly contributed by clim. change. Huge amount of soot will be blown to Greenland ice sheet. The ice will get darker and the melting can be dramatically speeded up (I think this already happened in the past). One can say that this is not what climate models predicted, so this should not be attributed to climate change. Right?

    But I guess, these kind of “unexpected” events (or non-linearities) could (should?) become more probable with further warming. Some peole say, that high uncertainty (or high variability of weather/climate in the past) should be reason for inaction. I think just the opposite. If we don’t (exactly) know, it is a reason for caution…

    Best,

    Like

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