More of the good ol’ “Ice Age Is Coming” drivel, but this time in Squarehead. Normally I expect them to be more sensible than us. This via Twitter via Eli via NoTruthZone; headlined there as Now It’s Global Cooling! German Weekly Warns Scientists See “Mini Ice Age Coming In Just A Few Years”. At least in the google translated version there’s no clear source, though it does feature [Sami] Solanki, the Director of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research. I don’t think he’s a nutter. What they quote from him is fairly sane: the solar activity is so complex that no one is able to make a reliable forecast for the next 15 years. That’s only “fairly” sane – see later – but is pure rationality compared to their headline, which is (a) mad and (b) unsupported by any of the text. Some of their text is OK; for example “The ice ages follow different cycles… Some researchers predict [the next ice age] for 2030 – that is untrustworthy”; but “The next ice age has already overdue” is drivel.
The core of their drivel is the very traditional
The time for a new cold spell is ripe. Of this some scientists are convinced. Our current interglacial, the Holocene, began 11,500 years ago. But it seems certain that interglacials last only about 10,000 years before the world for the next 100,000 years is sinking back into hibernation. As long as lasts the longest of the so-called Milankovitch cycles…
It is wrong for three reasons:
1. Interglacials don’t just last 10,000 years,
2. even if you were to prognosticate the end on the current interglacial based on orbital (Milankovitch) forcing, you wouldn’t predict an imminent end,
3. GW forcing outweighs it anyway.
So Solanki is only very slightly sane, because if all he said to them was “The next ice age is determined. It is not clear when” rather than “your text is total drivel” then he’s rubbish. However, one does have to be somewhat cautious about words in the press; for example he isn’t responsible for the Torygraph writing rubbish a decade ago.