Crandles offers 3 separate bets on the average of [2012, 2013 and 2014] (to be above/below 4.294, I take the high side), of [2013, 2014 and 2015] (4.119, ditto) and of [2014, 2015 and 2016] (3.94, ditto). In the event of anything that clearly throws things out like a VEI6 volcanic eruption bets are voidable.
Those are NSIDC extent not area. CR kindly reminded me of the 2012 and 13 values as 3.63 and 5.35 respectively. 2014 is pretty clearly going to be higher than 2014, so CR has been good enough to concede early and not wait for the end of 2014. I shall have to think of something amusing to do with the £100. Roll on the next few years for the next two bets in this series.
[Update: I’d forgotten that CR took £100 off me in 2012 (and Neven E50, but we converted that to double-or-quits up to 2015): see Sea ice betting report so I’ll just use the £100 to rebuild my tattered finances.]
I’ll leave you with some stained glass, from the hotel Neue Post in Innsbruck:
* Probably not betting on sea ice, again – Pierre Gosselin runs away.